Looking to win in 2024? Well then Mr. 45, you had better start tweeting.
Trump will never in his life be able to replicate the epic optics of him riding down the Trump Tower’s golden escalator with Melania to the tune of “Rockin’ In The Free World.” It was badass, it was cool, and it injected life into what had been, up to that point, boring run-of-the-mill American politics. In 2015, Trump was chaotically wheeling and dealing like a maestro who had done the Presidential thing before. People couldn’t stop paying attention to him. He was in top form back then. But that was seven long years ago. Many things have changed since then, including Trump. The 2022 version of Trump has been through the wringer and he’s probably jaded from the things he witnessed while he was inside the lion’s den. And speaking of being on the inside, Donald Trump is now far from being a political outsider. As a former President, he’s now partially if not completely, a member of the Swamp himself. There is no denying that now. Given these solemn realities, Trump won’t be able to rock the boat quite as violently as he once intended.
Nonetheless, Trump still needs to at least signal that he has the capability to shake things up every once in a while if he wants to be politically viable (Getting back to tweeting would be a good start). If Trump conveys to his supporters that he honestly wants to recapture the essence and the messaging of his glory days, then I believe that he will earn more respect and loyalty from them even if he fails. However, if he plans to betray his core MAGA base and fully pivot into milquetoast and pathetic GOP politics, then he will lose their respect and loyalty. It’s really that simple. If Trump plans to run like Ronald Reagan or Bob Dole during his 2024 campaign, then he shouldn’t run at all.
Could a black swan event take place that will help usher in a 2nd Donald Trump Presidency? Yes, of course. But the truth is that a second Trump presidency is unlikely to happen. If Trump does not drastically change his tone soon, then it will be obvious that he is nothing more than a ruse to keep the right-wing distracted and preoccupied. As it now stands, Trump is a formerly potent but currently neutered political figure who is constantly kept in check by the Deep State. For that reason, Trump can't really do anything meaningful even if he serves another term. There can never be a real conservative revolution in America if all hope of change rests on Donald Trump. As a case in point, Trump has held numerous rallies around the country since his embarrassing exit from office yet they have had zero impact on the political situation of the country.
With the exception of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the rise of Ron DeSantis, conservative politics and dialogue have regressed to the mean. The Overton Window of topics that are free to openly discuss has shrunken considerably since Joe Biden entered office. Donald Trump has been powerless to change any of these trends.
Trump was certainly one of the better Presidents of the modern era (the standard isn't very high) and that needs to be acknowledged. I will always appreciate what Trump did for the country, or at least what he attempted to do. I will never forget the once-in-a-lifetime experience that the Trump presidency was. I lost a number of friends because of my ideological alignment with his policy positions but it is what it is. Even with all of his flaws, there will never be another President like him and he should be recognized as a mostly positive figure in American history. However, I do believe that the Trump phenomenon was only meant to be experienced once. As one can clearly see, unless things drastically change soon, the magic simply isn’t there for a second go-round. His second bid for the White House may end up being too perfunctory and inorganic to become a reality.
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