It’s a Doomsday Trifecta. 1) Russia has officially annexed four former Ukrainian territories 2) Zelenskyy has signed a “fast-track” NATO application for Ukraine 3) After being bombed, the Nord Stream gas pipelines are out of commission
Three major events took place this past week, laying the groundwork for what could potentially become full-blown warfare between Ukraine/NATO and the Russian Federation
1. Russia has formally annexed the oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk after holding referendums in each of them. This means that Russia now views these four regions as sovereign Russian territory. From the Kremlin's perspective, these areas are no longer in dispute. Therefore any foreign attacks on these areas will henceforth be considered to be direct attacks on Russian soil. In practice, this would mean that Russia would respond emphatically in self-defense to any form of aggression. Undoubtedly, a Ukrainian/NATO-led offensive in these oblasts would accelerate the doomsday scenarios that are in the works right now. As expected, the U.S. government and the rest of the Western powers have not recognized the annexations.
2. In response to Russia's annexation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Friday that Ukraine is formally applying for an "accelerated" accession to NATO. To add some gravitas and theater to his consequential decision, Zelenskyy signed the application outdoors on camera, flanked by his Prime Minister and the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian parliament). Interestingly, the head of NATO later clarified that there is no "speedy" option for Ukraine to join NATO. Nonetheless, Zelenskyy's application sends a bold message to Moscow.
As I've stated several times before, Ukraine's accession to NATO is an unacceptable outcome for Russia. If Ukraine becomes a NATO member while this war against Russia is going on, then Russia would be in direct conflict with NATO. If Russia attacks a NATO country, then NATO would automatically activate Article 5 of their Treaty, which states that all NATO countries can take necessary military action against any country that attacks one of its member states. If Article 5 is invoked, then nuclear war would be right around the corner.
3. This week, both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines were bombed… by… nobody knows. Aside from the geopolitical ramifications, there are serious environmental consequences from this foolish act of terrorism. Close to 100,000 tons of oil have already been spilled into the ocean as we speak and significant quantities of methane gas have been released into the atmosphere. Naturally, Russia is claiming that the Western powers did it, while the West says that Russia did it. But here's an interesting fact: both President Biden and Victoria Nuland from the U.S. State Department threatened, before the war began, that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the Nord Stream pipelines would be shut off. And lo and behold, the Nord Stream pipelines are offline. It would be foolhardy and naive to think that Biden and Nuland’s warnings didn’t have any legitimate force behind them. Take that as you will.
Furthermore, from a layman's point of view, it wouldn’t make sense for Russia to blow up pipelines that it has a 51% ownership stake over. For economic reasons alone, it would be stupid. Also, it wouldn’t make sense for Russia to bomb the pipelines because Russia has been using European access to its oil and natural gas as leverage in the conflict. Without the pipelines as a bargaining chip, it doesn't really matter what either side does from here on out. Moreover, there is even less incentive than before for either party to hash out a peace agreement.
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